This consists largely of rumours and unsubstantiated speculation. As such, any part may be untrue; however, in this case the existence of a rumour or possibility of future development is alone enough reason to consider it.
Based on the previous experience of NeXT in porting NeXTSTEP to new platforms, and their previous experience with PowerPC in their ill-fated NRW prototype, there is no technical obstacle to producing a port of NeXTSTEP in the time scales proposed, or in adapting the NeXTSTEP user interface to the requirements of a Macintosh user base.
The risks of this course are that Apple employees and users might try to dilute the blend, causing delays in the release. A further risk is that they might try to retain too much compatibility with MacOS, which was one of the factors that damaged the Copland project so badly.
The deadline to the Developer release, which is still vaguely set at anywhere between June and September, is tight; as such, it has a good chance of success, provided that the objective is retained of making it primarily a port of NeXTSTEP, with minimal user interface modifications.
The next release, the Premier User release, is even more vaguely specified. Release will be between November and January (most likely January), with "partial" Blue Box support. Given that an internal demo has already been given, and widely publicised, of the Blue Box compatibility layer for MacOS software, this seems a long time in which to do very little. I would expect that this release will be an attempt to produce a working final user interface, provide full Apple device support, and include a Blue Box that will be certified for a limited range of applications.
If this is successful, then the final release will be a fully tested and debugged version of this release.
As well as Apple operating system release, support from third parties is also an important component of the overall prospect. All major NeXTSTEP applications will be ported to Rhapsody, to be available shortly after (within one to two months) the Developer release. These will take full advantage of the operating system, and will perform well in the environment. Some applications may not be initially ported, due to differences between NeXTSTEP and OpenStep, such as the state of the IndexingKit (which affects DataPhile) and 3DKit (which will affect 3DReality and several other applications).
One developer in particular, Lighthouse Design, has not announced any plans for their products, on either NeXTSTEP (i.e. OpenStep for MachOS) or Rhapsody. It seems likely that they will make it to the Rhapsody market in one form or another, but certainly not with the initial release.
Porting from NeXTSTEP to OpenStep is a significant investment; given the cost of OpenStep implementations at present, and the effort involved, it is not surprising that only Stone Design have released any ports. The time to port a major application, assuming that all required technologies and kits are supported under OpenStep, is around six man months. This is only slightly less than the time required to port to Java with Netscape's (NeXT AppKit influenced) IFC.
It currently appears that Apple developers with shipping MacOS products are not hurrying to port their products, but instead are waiting to see if Apple will ship Rhapsody on schedule, and are considering waiting to use the Blue Box environment rather than porting at first.
So the likely picture is that a core of NeXTSTEP applications will be available with the Developer release, and most MacOS applications will be able to run sometime during the first half of 1998, anywhere from six to twelve months later. Genuine ports to Rhapsody from Mac developers, and new products specific to Rhapsody, are likely to appear from that time onwards, but into a market composed of a different mix of software vendors.
Steve Jobs was a founder (arguably the founder) of Apple Computer, and has said many times that he is emotionally attached to the company. When he left in 1985, feeling that he had been forced out by John Sculley, he immediately founded NeXT Computer, and sold out all of his Apple shares as quickly as he was allowed to. This argues for a strong emotional bond.
Since then, he has been associated with Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, although mainly socially rather than through business. Larry spoke recently to the press about the relationship between Steve Jobs and Apple, saying that he had offered to help Jobs to take management control of Apple, before the NeXT merger was discussed. Steve refused at the time, but it is reasonable to assume that it was discussed because he was interested. Clearly this offer (as was reported in the article) is still on the table. The current position that Jobs has with Apple is of his choosing, therefore.
One of the various concepts that Ellison has been involved with is the Net station; a small and cheap client computer that requires the existence of a corporate network (or possibly the Internet) with world wide web servers and Java servers to become properly functional. Based on the convergence between this concept and various suggestions that Jobs has made concerning WebObjects, it seems likely that this is a shared idea.
Part of the roadmap documents (for both Rhapsody and MacOS) include Java as a significant technology, although hedged sufficiently that there isn't an all out commitment to the net station concept; Apple's Pippin was another variation on this theme. One option for future development of this theme would be to retain a line of closed box systems running MacOS (like the original Macintosh), sold primarily as net stations.
When the first announcement from Apple and NeXT of the merger arrived, several people commented that it read as though it was really NeXT taking over Apple. As the shape of the merger has been revealed, this seems to be more the case than at first seemed could be possible.
Amelio has clearly been relying very strongly on Steve Jobs half day a week consultancy job for Apple to give advice. There are reports that the recent layoffs and pruning of projects were heavily influenced by Jobs. The decision to bring in NeXT people to the Executive Committee is both a very typical PR posture, reminiscent of Steve Jobs rather than Gil Amelio, and a move that greatly empowers the NeXT influence at Apple.
The significance of using Steve Jobs so prominently can't be overestimated. His tendency towards micromanagement and perfectionism has been heavily criticised, but has resulted in the high quality of products developed under his influence. As a prospective manager, he isn't very attractive. However, as a figurehead for the corporation, he can't be bettered. To both Apple employees and users, Steve Jobs represents a corporate ethos that is a Golden Age of success for Apple. He is also possibly the best ever public demonstrator, far better at living in the limelight than the more solidly grounded Amelio.
One further important factor in the overall balance of market share between competing operating systems and hardware is the public image of the various contenders.
Microsoft has been very popular with the general public, and their success has been related to the degree of faith consumers in general have in their products, which has been very high. Although some factions have disapproved of Microsoft, their market dominance in recent years has made them the acceptable default option for computing. The old expression "no one has ever been fired for buying IBM" has been adapted to Microsoft.
Competitors to Microsoft have been divided, and companies like Sun, NeXT, IBM and Apple with competing operating systems and hardware have also competed against each other, with no cohesive story to tell.
Technical users have recently begun talking in popular terms of the Rebel Alliance versus the Evil Empire, quoting from the Star Wars films, and associating Microsoft and Intel with the Evil Empire, and Apple and other companies with the Rebel Alliance. This is significant because it flags a starting shift amongst industry leaders against Microsoft, and indicates that there is a gap that a new, strong competitor could take advantage of. Apple is the only possible candidate for this vacancy.
It may seem unimportant, but the battle for mindshare is the deciding factor. If a change is about the come, then to ignore the populist factor that has caused the most recent operating system trends, is to be unprepared.
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Paul LynchLast updated April 24, 1997.